DENVER - October 19th: Broncos 34, Chargers 23. That day marked the last time Denver has won. It also is the last time San Diego lost.
That was just 35 days ago, but it must seem like a lifetime ago for those at Dove Valley.
November 22: Chargers 32, Broncos 3.
For the first time all season, a span of 70 days, the Broncos are not in first place in the AFC West, instead ceding that spot to a San Diego team previously thought be out of the mix for a division title.
How in the span of just over a month has everything changed?
Baltimore Blueprint
The Ravens were the first team to hand Josh McDaniels a head coaching loss and they not only figured out the Broncos, they exposed them. It is fair to say everyone has used that game film to map out their subsequent game plan against Denver. Baltimore's idefensive plan was basic, yet incredibly effective: keep everything in front of you.
Let the Broncos complete as many short passes as they wish, just prevent against the intermediate and deep balls. That way, Denver would need to put up sustained drives of 13-15 plays just to get to the red zone. That means converting a few third downs along the way to keep the chains moving. You might be able to do it once, maybe twice, or three times. However, when you are committed to a short passing game, you may have to come with as many as four to five first downs per drive to keep drives alive. That is a lot to ask of any offense. Couple that with the fact that you have to convert those chances against top notch defenses and your percentages drop even lower. Simply put: Denver's limited offensive capabilities finally caught up to them.
The Defense Rests
Only a slightly smaller surprise than Denver's 6-0 start was the fact that it was fueled by their defense. The "D" yielded only 10 points TOTAL in the second half of their first six games. In the last four games, they gave given up 77 in the third and fourth quarters. They look worn down and mentally and physically. Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger have not been afraid to challenge Champ Bailey and their gambles have worked. The team's emotional leader, Brian Dawkins, left yesterday's game with a neck injury. Their once vaunted halftime adjustments have fallen flat and have produced no discernable results lately. At first, it was thought that the team's rigorous training camp left them better-conditioned than their opposition in the second half of games. However, now it just looks like Denver is plain tired and teams are weakening them to the point of submission by running the ball and keeping them out on the field for much longer stretches than previously this season. Rashard Mendenhall of the Steelers, Ladell Betts of the Redskins, and LaDanian Tomlinson of the Chargers were content to do just that and their teams eased to victory in the process.
Third Down Deficiency
This goes hand in hand with the struggles of the defense. In the first six games, Denver allowed a total of two third down conversions in the second half. That is truly an amazing statistic so incredible, it could not be sustained. As the team is discovering now, if you can't get off the field on third down consistently, you are just wearing out your "D" and letting the other team's offense remain on the field and just work the clock down to their liking, making it even more difficult for Denver's offense to operate when they do get a chance.
Rookie Rumblings
Only one rookie has produced at a consistent level. That is running back Knowshon Moreno and even that may be a stretch. He has yet to have a 100 yard rushing day. His career best was a 97 yard effort in a loss to the Redskins. He has had problems fumbling and had a sideline explosion with Brandon Marshall after coughing it up in a critical situation near the goal line on Sunday. He has a total of 600 yards and has averaged 4.2 yards a carry. Not bad at all, though, not what was expected for a player McDaniels considered the best running back in last year's NFL Draft.
As for the other players drafted this past April, Robert Ayers had a key fumble return against Pittsburgh and has shown flashes but not overall production befitting the 18th overall selection. Rookie Alphonso Smith, Richard Quinn, Darcel McBath, and Kenny McKinley, all expected to contribute, have all been flying far below the radar.
Misplaced Mojo
This may be the one factor toughest to pinpoint because it is less tangible than the others, though it is just as important. During the first six games, everything McDaniels did more or less worked. The players were brimming with confidence and felt their coaching staff had them as prepared as any team in the NFL. For example, Champ Bailey said he knew exactly what plays the Cowboys were going to run on their last two offensive sets in an October game with Dallas. He said during the week, McDaniels and the coaching staff had noticed a tendency of Dallas down near the goal line. The Cowboys ran exactly the two plays Denver was expecting. Bailey broke up both passes and Denver won. Then came wins over New England and the now-famous McDaniels celebration, and then the Monday night win in San Diego.
At that point, Denver was 6-0 and went to a well deserved bye week. After losing to the Ravens, cornerback Andre Goodman admitted the team was perhaps a little cocky. To me, swagger is not a bad attribute. But as each loss mounts, more and more doubt creeps into the locker room, and there is only one known antidote: winning.
QB Or Not QB
This one is the most obvious but would apply to any team, not just Denver. If you lose you're starting quarterback, an already difficult march through the regular season becomes even more of an uphill climb. Kyle Orton has a high threshold for pain and is in a contract year: a combination that is going to have him out on the field whenever possible. On a severely-injured ankle, he looked better than a "healthy" Chris Simms. That is a scary proposition for McDaniels. Only one thing, Simms isn't "healthy". Sure, on the injury report, he is not listed, but his spleen injury and recovery -even though behind him- has stunted his growth and development. To me, the return of Simms to football at all is a miraculous story and one that should be celebrated. Though, right now, pardon the Broncos if they aren't in the mood to throw a party.
That was just 35 days ago, but it must seem like a lifetime ago for those at Dove Valley.
November 22: Chargers 32, Broncos 3.
For the first time all season, a span of 70 days, the Broncos are not in first place in the AFC West, instead ceding that spot to a San Diego team previously thought be out of the mix for a division title.
How in the span of just over a month has everything changed?
Baltimore Blueprint
The Ravens were the first team to hand Josh McDaniels a head coaching loss and they not only figured out the Broncos, they exposed them. It is fair to say everyone has used that game film to map out their subsequent game plan against Denver. Baltimore's idefensive plan was basic, yet incredibly effective: keep everything in front of you.
Let the Broncos complete as many short passes as they wish, just prevent against the intermediate and deep balls. That way, Denver would need to put up sustained drives of 13-15 plays just to get to the red zone. That means converting a few third downs along the way to keep the chains moving. You might be able to do it once, maybe twice, or three times. However, when you are committed to a short passing game, you may have to come with as many as four to five first downs per drive to keep drives alive. That is a lot to ask of any offense. Couple that with the fact that you have to convert those chances against top notch defenses and your percentages drop even lower. Simply put: Denver's limited offensive capabilities finally caught up to them.
The Defense Rests
Only a slightly smaller surprise than Denver's 6-0 start was the fact that it was fueled by their defense. The "D" yielded only 10 points TOTAL in the second half of their first six games. In the last four games, they gave given up 77 in the third and fourth quarters. They look worn down and mentally and physically. Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger have not been afraid to challenge Champ Bailey and their gambles have worked. The team's emotional leader, Brian Dawkins, left yesterday's game with a neck injury. Their once vaunted halftime adjustments have fallen flat and have produced no discernable results lately. At first, it was thought that the team's rigorous training camp left them better-conditioned than their opposition in the second half of games. However, now it just looks like Denver is plain tired and teams are weakening them to the point of submission by running the ball and keeping them out on the field for much longer stretches than previously this season. Rashard Mendenhall of the Steelers, Ladell Betts of the Redskins, and LaDanian Tomlinson of the Chargers were content to do just that and their teams eased to victory in the process.
Third Down Deficiency
This goes hand in hand with the struggles of the defense. In the first six games, Denver allowed a total of two third down conversions in the second half. That is truly an amazing statistic so incredible, it could not be sustained. As the team is discovering now, if you can't get off the field on third down consistently, you are just wearing out your "D" and letting the other team's offense remain on the field and just work the clock down to their liking, making it even more difficult for Denver's offense to operate when they do get a chance.
Rookie Rumblings
Only one rookie has produced at a consistent level. That is running back Knowshon Moreno and even that may be a stretch. He has yet to have a 100 yard rushing day. His career best was a 97 yard effort in a loss to the Redskins. He has had problems fumbling and had a sideline explosion with Brandon Marshall after coughing it up in a critical situation near the goal line on Sunday. He has a total of 600 yards and has averaged 4.2 yards a carry. Not bad at all, though, not what was expected for a player McDaniels considered the best running back in last year's NFL Draft.
As for the other players drafted this past April, Robert Ayers had a key fumble return against Pittsburgh and has shown flashes but not overall production befitting the 18th overall selection. Rookie Alphonso Smith, Richard Quinn, Darcel McBath, and Kenny McKinley, all expected to contribute, have all been flying far below the radar.
Misplaced Mojo
This may be the one factor toughest to pinpoint because it is less tangible than the others, though it is just as important. During the first six games, everything McDaniels did more or less worked. The players were brimming with confidence and felt their coaching staff had them as prepared as any team in the NFL. For example, Champ Bailey said he knew exactly what plays the Cowboys were going to run on their last two offensive sets in an October game with Dallas. He said during the week, McDaniels and the coaching staff had noticed a tendency of Dallas down near the goal line. The Cowboys ran exactly the two plays Denver was expecting. Bailey broke up both passes and Denver won. Then came wins over New England and the now-famous McDaniels celebration, and then the Monday night win in San Diego.
At that point, Denver was 6-0 and went to a well deserved bye week. After losing to the Ravens, cornerback Andre Goodman admitted the team was perhaps a little cocky. To me, swagger is not a bad attribute. But as each loss mounts, more and more doubt creeps into the locker room, and there is only one known antidote: winning.
QB Or Not QB
This one is the most obvious but would apply to any team, not just Denver. If you lose you're starting quarterback, an already difficult march through the regular season becomes even more of an uphill climb. Kyle Orton has a high threshold for pain and is in a contract year: a combination that is going to have him out on the field whenever possible. On a severely-injured ankle, he looked better than a "healthy" Chris Simms. That is a scary proposition for McDaniels. Only one thing, Simms isn't "healthy". Sure, on the injury report, he is not listed, but his spleen injury and recovery -even though behind him- has stunted his growth and development. To me, the return of Simms to football at all is a miraculous story and one that should be celebrated. Though, right now, pardon the Broncos if they aren't in the mood to throw a party.
